US think tank’s report may reveal true goals of Clinton’s Philippine visit

By Renato M. Reyes, Jr.

Solidarity with typhoon victims? A humanitarian visit? The upcoming 2010 elections? These are just some of the avowed objectives of the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Philippines from November 12-13. Groups like Bayan however are unconvinced that these are the only reasons why Clinton will be visiting the Philippines.

Hillary is the third top official from Washington to visit the Philippines in a span of six months. The first was US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, then just a month later, Central Intelligence Agency director Leon Panetta.

A July report of the Washington-based think-tank CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES may give some insights on the true purpose of the visit of America’s top diplomat.

The CSIS, which describes itself as a “bipartisan, nonprofit organization” founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, is “dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation”. The institution claims to be “one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions.”

In its July 2009 report entitled US Alliances and Emerging Partnerships in Southeast Asia: Out of the Shadows, the CSIS gives proposals to the newly-elected Obama administration on how to achieve US interests in Southeast Asia.

The report describes Hillary Clinton’s visit to Indonesia, her first trip abroad as U.S. secretary of state, as a signal that “the Obama administration intends to pay renewed attention to Southeast Asia”, a region with over 550 million people, the world’s largest Muslim nation, an economy of over $1 trillion, and some of the world’s most strategic waterways.

The think-tank believes that “Southeast Asia is a region likely to play a critical role in determining the future of Asia and whether the United States can sustain itself as an Asia-Pacific power.”

The CSIS recommended that the US “seek to reinvigorate its engagement of alliance partners Thailand and the Philippines to test the possibilities of greater strategic convergence and cooperation.”

It also sought to develop bilateral relations to complement US engagement in regional bodies like the ASEAN.

Recent events prove this to be true. During Arroyo’s latest visit to the US, Obama designated the Philippines as country coordinator for US relations in the ASEAN. The bilateral relations with the Philippines were used to further US engagement in a regional platform like the ASEAN.

The report however laments the “legal and other constraints” in the “development” of US-RP defense relations, which includes the presence of US troops in the Philippines. There is a recognition of the controversies sparked by the Subic Rape case and the opposition to the Visiting Forces Agreement.

Following this report, the two-day Clinton visit is likely in line with “reinvigorating US-RP relations” in furtherance of US interests in the region. This encompasses military, diplomatic and economic interests. Reinvigorating relations may mean finding ways for increased US intervention in the Philippines and in the region as a whole.

Obama’s 45-minute meeting with Arroyo, and Clinton’s two-day visit to the Philippines may be intended to make the Philippines “feel important” again as far as US goals in the region are concerned. But beneath the glam and photo-ops offered by such high profile meetings is the stark reality that relations remain unequal between the former colonial master and the former colony.

Still healthy but fraught with difficulty

The report believes that US-RP alliance is “in surprisingly good health” and that it is “in its best shape in 20 years.” However, the report cited some recent problems which the CSIS thought put some strain on US-RP relations.

It criticized the “rampant corruption, lack of strategic thinking and overall degradation of political, economic and military capabilities” as the reasons why countless US diplomats have “thrown up their hands in frustration.”

In its report on the Philippines, the CSIS describes US-RP relations as “fraught with controversy and difficulty”. It blamed a “minority of Leftist politicians”, “media and demonstrations outside the US embassy” for raising questions about US-RP relations and “constraining the development of ties. “

“The rape of a Philippine woman by a U.S. marine at Subic Bay in 2005, and his subsequent conviction in 2006, threatened to destabilize the bilateral relationship as it reminded Filipinos of the more sordid aspects of the U.S. Cold War–era presence. The transfer of Marine Lance Corporal Daniel Smith to the custody of the U.S. embassy upon conviction, pursuant to the Visiting Forces Agreement, also caused controversy and calls for revision or scrapping of the VFA,” it said.

The report also played up what it believes as the predominantly pro-American sentiments in the country. The report condescendingly describes Filipinos as not being able to live without the Americans.

“At a fundamental level, Philippine interlocutors affirmed that Philippine citizens almost universally consider the alliance with the United States to be not only welcome and successful, but also an essential element of Philippine life that they cannot imagine doing without.”

The report cited an unnamed 2007 poll finding that “Filipinos rank first in trusting the US to act responsibly in the world, first in disagreeing that the US is playing the role of world policeman too much, first in supporting long-term US military bases overseas, and third in feeling that the US should continue to be the preeminent world leader in solving international problems.”

Yet despite this alleged dominant pro-US sentiment that is seemingly favorable to the continued US intervention and basing, the report advised against making permanent military bases as the focus of US defense policy towards the Philippines.

Basing without bases

The report cited the US gains in the Balikatan and VFA, especially after the September 11 attacks in the US. “Beginning with the “Balikatan,” or “shoulder-to-shoulder,” joint exercise in February 2002, more than 1,000 U.S. military personnel reengaged on Philippine soil to provide logistical support, intelligence information, military equipment, operational planning assistance, and tactical advice to local Philippine forces fighting the guerrillas. The Philippines became the locus of the only U.S. ground combat forces deployed overseas in direct support of the “global war on terror” besides those engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The think-tank, while not opposed to the idea of permanent military basing noted that it would be politically untenable for the Philippines to allow the return of permanent bases, citing resistance to the idea for the “foreseeable future.”

The report did mention that with the increase in US exercises and activities even a former US ambassador described the US troops presence as being semi-continuous. The CSIS also praised the Philippines for being the “leading supplier” of new US Cooperative Security Locations (CSL) or facilities to which U.S. forces have “ready, regular, and predictable access but of which host nations retain ownership.” The report cited refurbished facilities in Clark and Subic as the potential cites of these CSL’s.

True enough, these former bases are reportedly already being accessed by American military contractors like Blackwater and Corporate Training Unit (CTU), both of which operate in Iraq.

The report actually reinforces earlier analysis that the Philippines continues to provide the US “virtual basing” opportunities. What’s new is that it concedes there will be controversies and difficulties if the US government pushes the issue of formal bases.

CSIS Recommendations

First among the recommendations of the CSIS deals with free-trade, a topic that is already on the agenda in the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meet that will be attended by Clinton and Obama in Singapore.

“The United States needs to be prepared to react to potential Philippine protectionism, endemic corruption, and position within international economic forums such as APEC, the World Trade Organization, and ASEAN, with steady and patient engagement.”

While acknowledging that US-RP relations are crucial in protecting American interests against emerging powers like China, the report advises US policymakers not to suggest in word in or deed that US-RP relations are aimed at third party like China. “To be comfortable to Manila, strategic relations should be defined, oriented, and couched in constructive terms, rather than “against” any particular country.”

In short, the US does not want us to see the patently obvious.