Peace Process Fraught with Peril for Arroyo

By Carlos H. Conde
International Herald Tribune
The New York Times

MANILA: Three weeks ago, the government of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was scheduled to sign a peace deal that, among other things, had promised to cede part of Mindanao, the main island in the south of the Philippines, to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the Islamic separatist group.

When the signing was aborted after local officials of Christian-dominated provinces complained to the Supreme Court, the rebels went on a two-day rampage in which 33 people were killed and dozens of houses burned. The events have left the peace process in tatters.

Since then, Arroyo has been faced with a dilemma: whether to salvage the peace process, or abandon it and deal with the rebels much more forcefully, as her predecessor, Joseph Estrada, had done. Either way, according to analysts and experts, there are big political risks.

Abhoud Syed Lingga, executive director of the Institute of Bangsamoro Studies, a nonprofit organization that conducts studies on issues involving Filipino Muslims, said the aborted signing had “triggered the actions of some of the front’s commanders.” What these actions suggest, Lingga explained, is that “if negotiations fail, violence will follow.”

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court began oral arguments last week on the complaint lodged by Manuel Pinol, the vice-governor of North Cotabato Province. The court is expected to make public its opinion - on whether the peace agreement was constitutional and legal - before the month ends.

Arroyo’s practical option is to proceed with the signing of the agreement - provided that the Supreme Court rules in her favor or that she manages to produce another, more acceptable draft - and pursue the peace process.

This, however, is politically tricky for her, analysts said. For the agreement to be signed, Arroyo will have to pacify a large segment of the population that is opposed to any deal that would give Muslims more territories than they already have. These opponents have made known their intention to use force - by organizing civilian militias against the front if necessary.

Moreover, Arroyo officials had said such a deal could only be implemented if the Congress amended the Constitution and shifted the system of government to federalism. Her opponents in both the Senate and the House of Representatives have vowed to block such an effort for two reasons: They do not want to divide the republic, and they do not want to give Arroyo the opportunity to extend her term, which her allies can theoretically do once the federalism proposal is under consideration in Congress.

Indeed, the suspicion that the peace deal is just a Trojan horse to extend her term, which ends in 2010, has been so overwhelming here that, according to analysts, whatever good the agreement has in store for Filipino Muslims has disappeared from the public discourse. In forging the agreement, the government did not consult the public, even refusing to release the draft to the public.

While the administration initially showed confusion in its response to the crisis, there have been indications in the past several days that it has opted to pursue the peace deal and to mollify those opposed to it.

For example, military officials, in a departure from their initial pronouncements of a widespread offensive against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, declared on Thursday that the offensives would be directed specifically at the two groups that carried out the attacks, not necessarily against the whole movement.