Q&A: Mindanao on the Brink

By Carlos H. Conde

MANILA — The incidents in Mindanao the past three weeks have exposed the fragility of peace in the southern Philippines. After 11 years on the negotiating table, both the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front are now confronted with what is turning out to be one of the worst crises in the peace process.

The usual victims are the civilians, both Moro and non-Moro. As the government vows to bring to justice the perpetrators of the series of atrocities in Lanao del Norte and Sarangani provinces last week, massive military operations are under way, displacing tens of thousands more people on top of the estimated 160,000 displaced in the week following the scuttling of the signing of the peace agreement in Kuala Lumpur on August 5.

And the violence doesn’t seem to end soon and is, in fact, threatening to escalate, as residents vow to form militias reminiscent of the ones that terrorized Moro communities in the ’70s to confront the MILF should things continue to go out of hand. Mindanao is once again on the brink.

The author asked four experts and analysts on their thoughts on what has happened and what the future holds for Mindanao.

Zachary Abuza is a professor of political science at Simmons College in Boston, specializing in Southeast Asian politics and security issues. He was a senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, a group funded by the US Congress, where he studied the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. He is the author of Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror (2003).

Ramon Casiple is the executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform (IPER) based in Manila. He was the secretary-general of Claimants 1081, a group of human-rights victims of the Marcos dictatorship.

Julkipli Wadi is associate professor at the Institute of Islamic Studies at the University of the Philippines.

Abhoud Syed M. Lingga is executive director of the Institute of Bangsamoro Studies, a nonprofit based in Cotabato City, in the southern Philippines, that conducts studies on issues affecting Filipino Muslims.

What do you think of what has happened since the signing of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA) between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front was aborted?

ABUZA: Clearly the MILF are really frustrated. After years of back and forth negotiations, breakdowns in talks, etc, they finally reached a territorial deal. But the Supreme Court imposed an injunction, stating that the agreement could be unconstitutional, something that I have warned about. For the MILF, it is not checks and balances of democracy but evidence of a fundamental lack of commitment to the peace process by the government. The MILF assert that the violence — though understandable — is being perpetrated by some rogue commanders, and has not been authorized by the central committee. There is evidence to the contrary. If the Supreme Court rules against the agreement, brace yourself for a lot more fighting. President Arroyo is such a lame duck right now that she lacks the political capital to get any constitutional amendment passed in the final 1+ year of her term. So the MILF could be in limbo for another 2-3 years, until a new president is settled in office.

CASIPLE: I think the Arroyo administration is in a quandary. It already agreed to the BJE (Bangsamoro Juridical Entity, a Muslim territory proposed in the agreement that is much larger than the existing autonomous region) but the fierce opposition from many sectors forced it to temporarily backtrack. The MILF is angry and is exerting military and political pressure to go on with the MOA signing. It opted for a review to buy time and sort out its option. Arroyo is very tense since it could result in her ouster.

WADI: The aborted MOA has been a letdown on both the GRP (Government of the Republic of the Philippines) and the MILF, with the former receiving more of the blame while the MILF’s standing and prestige remain — until the rampage of the groups of (MILF commanders ) Kato and Bravo a few days ago. The MILF’s political and diplomatic gain has been negatively affected. It allows the GRP to transform its previously defensive stance into an opportunity by using the rampage of a few MILF members to blame the MILF leadership for its failure to impose strict discipline on its members. The MILF, as a result, is put on the defensive once more.