The Philippines: Counter-Insurgency Vs. Counter-Terrorism in Mindanao

The marines responded by overrunning Camp Jabal Uhud on 15 April, and the army took a third MNLF camp in Tiis, Talipao. The fighting was the fiercest since February 2005, with gun battles erupting in Kalingalan Kaluang and Parang, towns at opposite ends of the island, as well as around the seized MNLF camps. More than 40,000 villagers were displaced in the first few days and 67,000 by the end of May 2007 – more than 12 per cent of Jolo’s population.87 ASG under Albader Parad took advantage of the chaos by abducting seven civilians and demanding ransom from provincial governor Ben Loong. Several days later, their heads were dumped at army bases in Parang and Indanan.88

While difficult to quantify, much of the civilian goodwill so painstakingly cultivated through the civil-military operations component of Balikatan was clearly lost in the mass evacuations. The armed forces’ own tactical intelligence estimates are unambiguous. With the followers of at least seven MNLF commanders driven into the arms of the Abu Sayyaf, the number of enemy combatants on Jolo instantly jumped from 432 to 609 – more than 40 per cent – while the group’s armed strength rose from 284 to 458 – an increase of over 60 percent.89

cOLLUSION AND COOPERATION
The seizure of the MNLF’s principal bases on Jolo recalls the MILF experience on mainland Mindanao from 2000 to 2003. Relatively disciplined and hierarchically accountable guerrilla formations have again been dispersed into an anarchic environment, where there are many possibilities – and even imperatives – for them to deepen collusion with terrorists.

In counter-insurgency terms, capturing guerrilla strongholds may be seen as a victory. But from a counter-terrorism perspective, anything that drives mainstream guerrillas and extremist jihadis closer together is a defeat. On Mindanao, the AFP’s occupation of the MILF’s Camp Abubakar, from July 2000, did impede the JI training facilities – though this was not presented as an objective at the time.90 But smaller groups of freelance foreign jihadis have continued to seek partnerships with militants inside, as well as outside, the MILF and MNLF.

The most dangerous of these liaisons came about as a direct result of Balikatan’s “success” in Basilan. As described above, driving the ASG core group onto the mainland had the unintended effect of cementing its alliance with radical MILF commanders. Defusing this combination was the basis for recent achievements against the ASG. Though the story remains untold in the official account, it holds important lessons for Sulu and for many situations where terrorists are embedded in popular insurgencies.

Where distinguishing between insurgents and terrorists is possible, encouraging the first to cooperate against the second, rather than collude with them, must be a central pillar of counter-terrorism programs. Encouraging Philippine insurgents to cooperate against terrorists, rather than collude with them, must be a central pillar of counter-terrorism programs. Moreover, in the longer term, such cooperation helps build mutual trust necessary for a durable peace agreement. Quiet MILF cooperation against ASG and foreign jihadis continued until shortly after the expiry of AHJAG’s mandate on 21 June 2007. An ASG plan to re-infiltrate mainland Mindanao, due to intensifying pressure from Oplan Ultimatum on Jolo, was frustrated in November 2006. Bashir Takasan, an MILF member working with AHJAG from Davao Oriental, where the jihadis had hoped to land, “died in the line of duty preventing their re-entry”.91

On 19-20 June, notorious terrorists Omar and Iting Sailani were gunned down in Baywas, Sumisip town, on Basilan, the home village of local MILF commander Amir Mingkong, who has a long history of collusion with the ASG. News reports credited a marine unit with the kills, but according to the marine commander on Basilan, it was Mingkong himself who delivered the coup de grace. This was more likely motivated by a personal dispute than a conscious embrace of the peace process but was an encouraging development, nonetheless.92

The Al-Barka Incident: June 2007

Across the Moro Gulf on the Zamboanga peninsula, however, a dangerous situation was evolving that would have serious consequences for Basilan. On 10 June 2007, Fr. Giancarlo Bossi, an Italian priest, was kidnapped from his parish in Payao, Zamboanga Sibugay province. MILF forces helping in the search for Bossi stood down at the end of the month, expressing concern that a mistaken encounter might occur in the absence of a clear AHJAG mandate, since it had expired on 21 June.93 Ten days later, those fears were realised in Al-Barka.