Malaysia’s Pullout and Its Implications for Mindanao

A resumption of hostilities will certainly impact on the economy. If it will happen at the time of rising prices of rice and oil, the poor will be badly affected as government resources will be diverted to war efforts. Representative Emylou “Lala” Talino-Mendoza (1st Dist., Cotabato province) has similar view. She said: “God forbid but if this happens again, the civilians, who have not yet fully recovered from the effects of the war in 2003, would be the first and biggest casualty. Children, the aged and women will be trooping to congested evacuation centers.”18

A break down of the ceasefire will also have an effect on investments since there will be no guarantee that the conflict will be contained in small areas in Mindanao, even if government will assure us that it can limit possible spill over.

Implications to the Peace Process

Although Malaysia has no plan to abandon its role as facilitator in the GRP-MILF talks,19 the pull-out of its contingents will have effect to the peace process. Malaysia’s high profile presence on the ground reinforces people’s confidence in the peace process, and their absence will inevitably have impact on that confidence. What I am afraid of is when people lost confidence in negotiations as conflict resolution mechanism, other options will be opened for them to pursue their aspirations and to seek redress of their grievances. This may happen if population in conflict-affected areas experience negotiation fatigue. Dragging the negotiations too long that might tax peoples’ patience is risky.

Although what is being highlighted is Malaysia’s pull-out but it put also into focus the negotiations. The peace talks have been dragging on for eleven years, and Malaysia’s involvement is now seven years. Malaysia’s position that there should be closure to the negotiations is understandable for they cannot stay here forever and continuously police the behaviors of government and MILF forces.

On the other hand, Malaysia’s pull-out might encourage the parties to hasten the process of reaching agreement on ancestral domain. It might also call the attention of the President for her to exercise the political will, beyond statements, to resolve the conflict to the satisfaction of the Bangsamoro people. If President Arroyo can personally take interest in handling the on-going GRP-MILF negotiations, probably it will hasten the process because the peace talks will be free from the gridlock of bureaucratic decision making.

Way Forward

No doubt that with the presence of the IMT on the ground we experience relative peace. Clashes between forces of government and the MILF were significantly reduced. Although the IMT is not leaving, but the decision of Malaysia to pull-out its contingents undoubtedly will place the IMT in weak position to respond to crisis.

On September 9, 2008 the mandate of the IMT will expire. Even if the other three countries want to stay but they cannot if the there is no mandate.

The way out from this situation is for the GRP and MILF to resume the negotiations, and tackle the draft memorandum of agreement on ancestral domain because it is the reason why Malaysia decided to withdraw its contingents. To push the peace talks forward, government has to honor its commitments in the consensus points and the compromised agreements reached during the shuttle diplomacy of Datu Othman last February. I understand that the MILF is not asking anything more than what were previously agreed upon. Government due diligence is understandable, which should have been done before it agreed on the consensus points, but should not be made as reason to undo what were already agreed because it places government sincerity in bad light in the eyes of the Bangsamoro and the international community.

Once the negotiations will be resumed, the two parties, in addition to the discussion on the draft MOA, can request Malaysia to reconsider its decision, and the likelihood for reconsideration of the decision is great. The renewal of the IMT mandate will be assured if the two panels meet. Even the idea of inviting other countries to join the IMT can be decided by the two parties. (pinoypress.net)