By Robert Sutter » Is Taiwan ‘Over’? – I think Not

By Robert Sutter

Teaching a graduate seminar on contemporary Taiwan, I was asked by a student, “Will you be teaching this course in the future? Isn’t Taiwan over?”

The student’s assessment that a Taiwan separate from China was approaching its end is not surprising. It reflects China’s growing international clout and effectiveness in picking off one after another of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies, Taiwan’s unusual abilities to alienate both friends and foes with provocative stunts in order to score points in domestic Taiwan politics, and President Bush’s slow but steady shift from ardent defense of Taiwan to collaborating with Beijing to the point of reputed U.S.-China “co-management” of the Taiwan issue. Bending to the realities of China’s power, Taiwan’s growing economic interdependence with the mainland, and evaporating international support for Taiwan, observers in Taiwan and abroad seem sensible in judging that Taiwan has few options other than coming to terms with China.

However, a closer look shows that there is nothing inevitable about Taiwan’s future. Seasoned observers have seen much worse circumstances, notably the dark days for Taiwan following the Carter administration’s decision to join the wave of governments abandoning official ties with Taiwan in a pragmatic pursuit of U.S. interests with China; and the willingness of the Reagan administration, elected on a platform of strong support of Taiwan, to agree to end US arms sales to the isolated and beleaguered Chiang Ching-kuo government in an effort to keep China on the U.S. side in opposition to the expanding Soviet Union. Resilient Taiwan, with important international support, weathered those storms and can do so again.

International Options

Even in international affairs, where China’s influence looms particularly large, Taiwan has numerous options to strengthen and sustain its position separate from China’s control. Success or failure in these options will depend heavily on Taiwan abandoning its self-absorbed diplomacy of recent years. Taiwan leaders have sensationalized Taiwan’s international relations and exploited foreign contacts to score political points in competition with Beijing and with domestic political opponents. In the process, they have alienated many friends abroad. Fortunately, the new Taiwan government promises to deal with China and with international issues more pragmatically and with greater attention to Taiwan’s longer term interests.

Areas for fruitful Taiwan international exchange include the following paths cited in recent academic and public policy accounts:

· Build on the substantial emotional, security, ideological, and cultural bonds that under-gird the recent improvement in Taiwan-Japan relations and Japan’s recent firmness in the face of Chinese pressure over Taiwan.

· Build on Taiwan’s ideological attractiveness to popular and media opinion in many of the world’s democracies and to some of their governments.