Brad Glosserman » Japan Peers Into the Abyss

A third option is abandoning one of Japan’s three nonnuclear principles (which prohibit the production, possession or introduction of nuclear weapons on Japanese soil). It has been suggested that the U.S. station some of its nuclear weapons in Japan, ensuring a stronger coupling of U.S. and Japanese interests. Japanese strategists are beginning to explore this option, although it is politically impossible at this time.

Hardware is a sub-optimal solution. Japan is increasingly insecure, and that insecurity reflects doubts about the U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense. A decision to go nuclear would be a clear sign that there is no faith in the U.S.

U.S. policy makers are waking up to the growing uncertainty at the heart of the alliance, but repeated assurances of the U.S. commitment to the alliance – while welcome – aren’t enough. The U.S. needs frank and candid discussions with Japanese about the roots of their insecurity, how the nuclear deterrent works, and measures that can be taken to build Japanese confidence. This conversation would demonstrate U.S. seriousness about Japanese concerns and show respect for an ally by sharing information vital to its defense. (Japan would have to take steps to ensure the contents of those conversations are kept secret.)

While possession of nuclear weapons appears unnecessary and unwise given current circumstances, a nuclear debate would still be in Japan’s interest. It would help Japanese better understand the reasons for not acquiring such weapons and reconfirm Japan’s nonnuclear status. It could help forge a national consensus as anxieties mount. The U.S. must be a partner in this process since its behavior and perceived reliability will be the most important factor in the Japanese debate.

Brad Glosserman (bradg@hawaii.rr.com) is executive director of the Pacific Forum CSIS. For additional information on the U.S.-Japan relationship, please see the chapter on U.S.-Japan relations written by Michael Green and Nicholas Szechenyi in Comparative Connections, the Pacific Forum quarterly electronic journal.