Robert Sutter » Converging Chinese and US ‘Gulliver Strategies’ in Asia: Implications for U.S. Policy

China’s “Gulliver strategy”

What has emerged is a type of Gulliver strategy China uses to tie down the perceived threats to its sovereignty, influence, and interests posed by the United States. Chinese leaders foster ever greater Chinese-U.S. economic interdependence, which has the benefit of curbing possible U.S. moves to pressure China. China builds ever greater economic interdependence among Asian neighbors, including close allies of the United States, with the result that these countries are more supportive of China and less likely to join with the U.S. in efforts to pressure China. Active, adroit, and generally positive Chinese diplomacy strengthens webs of relationships with the U.S. and China’s neighbors in bilateral and multilateral relationships. These curb possible U.S. pressure against China and reduce the danger that Asian countries will cooperate with the U.S. against China. China’s good neighbor policies and growing economic importance also have advanced China’s overall influence in Asia at a time of perceived U.S. inattention and decline in Asia, and they have established norms and practices that make it less likely for Asian neighbors to challenge Chinese territorial claims and sovereign space or China’s growing power and influence in regional and international affairs.

U.S., Asian “Gulliver strategies”

Interdependence by definition works two ways. Thus, Chinese efforts to foster positive interdependence as a type of Gulliver strategy against U.S. power and pressure have served the interests of U.S. and Asian powers seeking to engage China. In particular, the United States and Asian powers follow Gulliver strategies of their own against China: they use engagement to build webs of relationships with China that will constrain Chinese tendencies toward aggressive or disruptive behavior in Asian and world affairs. Specialists saw the Southeast Asian countries and their main regional organization, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), following such an approach toward China since the early 1990s. At the same time, the U.S. Council of Foreign Relations saw U.S. engagement as premised on this kind of enmeshment of China in webs of interdependent relationships designed to curb Chinese aggression and disruption of regional stability.

In sum, the Gulliver strategies of China on the one hand, and the U.S. and many of China’s neighbors on the other, seem to reinforce stability in Asia and seem to be in the overall interests of the United States.

Uncertain prospects

Prudent U.S. policy should be aware that changing circumstances could change the direction of China’s recent tactics in protecting and advancing its sovereignty, security, and influence. China remains a dissatisfied and aggrieved power, particularly as far as its sovereignty is concerned. On the one hand, China’s current positive approach that builds interdependence with the United States and China’s neighbors may deepen and make dealing with sensitive issues like Taiwan peacefully through negotiations easier in the future. On the other hand, China continues its rapid military buildup focused on dealing with the U.S. in a Taiwan contingency. There is no guarantee that changes in the balance of forces and influence in Asia, with China rising to greater regional leadership as the United States seems less prominent and influential, won’t prompt China’s leaders to adopt more coercive means against Taiwan and in pursuit of greater power and possible dominance in Asia.

Robert Sutter (sutterr@georgetown.edu) is professor at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Opinions expressed are his own. Opposing views are welcome. Professor Sutter also co-authors on “China-Southeast Asia” in Comparative Connections, the Pacific Forum’s quarterly on-line journal [www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html].