“Climate Mainstreaming” – The New Must for Planning

HONOLULU (Feb. 19) — Global warming should be just as much a part of smart planning as the changing seasons, a top government climate researcher told an East West Center gathering recently.

But with rare exceptions, few public or private institutions wrap the sobering impact of climate change into their plans — even when their leaders know and accept the reality of the phenomenon, National Ocean and Aeronautic Administration official Eileen Shea told an international graduate conference at the Center.

Shea is director of NOAA’s Integrated Data and Environmental Application Center and is chief of the climate services division of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center.

The success of virtually all future human endeavors depends on changing our mindset about global warming so that climate change becomes part of every planning effort, Shea said.

“We have to integrate information about climate change into every decision we make.”

“It’s called climate mainstreaming,” Shea said. “And it’s the key.

It goes without question today, Shea said, that such phenomena as the changing seasons are completely integrated into any serious planning effort. Manufacturers know there are times when cold weather gear sells and when to roll out the beach umbrellas and bathing suits. By the same token, government planners anticipate the impact of seasons (and the weather that comes with them) on everything from construction projects to staffing levels.

But that same level of concrete awareness, she argued, is too often missing when it comes to folding climate change awareness – climate mainstreaming – into planning.

While most people accept the reality of global warming, relatively few are aware of the range of things even moderate climate change can produce, she said. With just a modest average increase in global temperatures over the next few decades, she said, the world can expect:

–Rain increases in high latitudes and decreases in lower and subtropical land regions. Rain will come in the form of “very heavy” events.

–For the first half of the coming century, precipitation (rain and snow) will increase, followed by 50 years of drought.

–Heat extremes will increase.

–Tropical cyclones will become more intense, increasing risks to coastal communities and small islands.

–Coastal erosion will become more common, leading to a loss of protective coral and mangrove swamps.

–Changing temperatures will lead to an influx of non-native species.

Ironically, Shea said, one of the few places in the world where climate mainstreaming has become the norm is on threatened and vulnerable Pacific islands, where small rises in ocean levels or modest shifts in traditional wind and rain patterns can bring disastrous results.