World must wake up to pandemic disease threat, expert urges

BANGKOK (Jan. 25) — Much of the world, including governments, business and the news media, is “asleep at the switch” about one of the biggest threats to human existence ever known, a leading American specialist on infectious diseases said here this week.

Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a frequent writer on such topics as avian flu and bioterrorism, said the world fails to fully understand the implications of such threats.

“Planning is poor,” Osterholm said. “People just assume business will run as normal — which it won’t! And no one, including the media, is paying attention.”

He spoke to a media conference sponsored by the East-West Center of Honolulu and co-hosted by the National Press Council of Thailand. To read an interactive blog on the conference proceedings, visit http://forum.eastwestcenter.org/mediaconference.

While the media has done lots of short-term reporting on the pandemic flu threat, it has largely failed to understand the larger, and quite terrifying, consequences of rapidly spreading disease, Osterholm said. For instance, an avian flu pandemic might directly claim a relatively limited number of lives, but the fallout from a pandemic could well be catastrophic.

“Just because these are small numbers, anyone who shrugs off the seriousness of this is a fool of history,” Osterholm said.

The fallout from a flu pandemic, he said, could include massive energy shortages around the world, a surge in other deadly infectious diseases, uncounted associated deaths due to shortage of medical supplies and treatment, and more.

The relatively fragile world health system could collapse, he said.

What drives the possibility of these catastrophic side-effects of a flu pandemic? It is in part, Osterholm said, because the world is vastly more interconnected today than it was during previous pandemics. What happens in one place will inevitably impact another.

In addition, he said, it is because the world economy has developed a “just-in time” approach to commodities, from medical supplies to food and energy, with the result that such resources are short and they can’t be easily moved around. “Energy, food, water, transportation, communications, equipment parts, security — all will be in short supply,” he said.

Even the systems to handle the remains of victims will be at risk of breaking down. “Cremation is a just-in-time industry,” Osterholm said.

These shortages will have an impact on human life and welfare around the globe that far outstrips the flu itself, he said.

In a pandemic, with people sick and unable to work around the world, Osterholm said, container shipping will shut down, power plants will close for want of fuel, and hospitals will run out of medical supplies and even staff. “People just don’t understand the implications of a just-in-time economy,” he said.

One example: Japan is the biggest importer of coal and natural gas (for energy) in the world. If a pandemic causes an interruption in shipping, which it likely will, he said, “the lights are going out in Japan within a matter of days, and that will have a ripple effect around the world.”

Osterholm acknowledged that telling such stories is difficult. It takes time, money and space to put the issue in context. That’s tough in today’s media climate, he admitted.

Tellingly, no one in the current U.S. presidential campaign is talking about these issues, Osterholm said, and “guys like me are too easy to write off.”

One approach toward gaining greater attention to these threats might be to note that for all the gloom and doom, there are positive things that can be done. For instance:

* Use resources now devoted to war to improve health and sanitation conditions in rural villages. This will improve lives today and have a direct impact on overpopulation as better health conditions translate directly into lower birth rates.

* Focus on better business preparedness, so that critical supplies are produced and are readily available.

* Stress conservation as the best response to climate change.

But, said Osterholm, it’s an uphill fight. “The last time there was a commitment of sufficient time and energy was in World War II,” he said. “We don’t have that kind of commitment any more.”

The EAST-WEST CENTER is an education and research organization established by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen relations and understanding among the peoples and nations of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. The Center contributes to a peaceful, prosperous and just Asia Pacific community by serving as a vigorous hub for cooperative research, education and dialogue on critical issues of common concern to the Asia Pacific region and the United States. Funding for the Center comes from the U.S. government, with additional support provided by private agencies, individuals, foundations, corporations and the governments of the region.