Burma/Myanmar: After the Crackdown

Yangon/Jakarta/Brussels, 31 January 2008: A three-level approach, drawing on the respective strengths of the UN, the country’s neighbours and the wider international community, is needed to promote change in Burma/Myanmar.

Burma/Myanmar: After the Crackdown, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the implications of the mass protests in September 2007 and their violent crushing, and proposes an approach to resolve the crisis. While the military remains in firm charge, last year’s events emphasised the depth of the political and economic problems. Even regime allies recognise a new course is desperately needed.

“Myanmar’s neighbours, especially China and members of ASEAN, need to seize the moment”, says John Virgoe, Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project Director. “Regional multi-party talks – coordinated with the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, and backed by the wider international community – hold out the best hope for launching a meaningful process of national reconciliation and broader reform”.

“Indonesia could play a particularly important role, perhaps by hosting a regional meeting along the lines of the Jakarta Informal Meetings (JIM) which kick-started the Cambodia peace process in 1988 and 1989”, says Crisis Group President Gareth Evans (who as then Australian Foreign Minister was closely involved in that process).

While new opportunities for change exist, there are profound structural obstacles. The balance of power is still heavily weighted in favour of the army, whose top leaders insist that only a strongly centralised, military-led state can hold the country together. Myanmar faces immense challenges, too, in overcoming the debilitating legacy of decades of conflict, poverty and institutional failure, which fuelled the recent crisis and could well overwhelm any future government.

All international actors with some ability to influence the situation need to become actively involved in working for change, including the emergence of a broader, more inclusive, better organised political society. At the core, Special Envoy Gambari plays a vital role promoting dialogue and coordinating unprecedented international efforts. He deserves strong, consistent international backing, including from Ban Ki-moon personally, whose direct involvement in talks would be a powerful signal.

Others also have important roles. A working group of China and key ASEAN members – possibly Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – should draw on close ties to engage the government in talks about issues affecting regional stability and development.

In parallel, a support group from the wider international community, including the U.S., EU member states, Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway and others, must keep human rights issues at the top of the agenda. More effective sanctions targeting regime leaders are needed, coupled with positive incentives for reform. So, too, is assistance for saving lives and strengthening the future basis for successful transition to peace, democracy and an effective economy.

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