Toufiq A. Siddiqi » The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Climate Change

Equity within countries

In most of the industrialized countries of the world, there is relatively little disparity in energy use between the urban or rural areas or between different parts of the country. This is generally not the case in much of Asia.

There, the urban upper middle class has its automobile or two, and its use of electricity for lighting and ­running a TV set, refrigerator, computer and other appliances is comparable to its counterparts in Europe or Japan. By contrast, the rural population may use bicycles or animals for transportation, and consume only a small amount of electricity due to its high cost.

In fact, there are still over 100 million people in Asia with no access to electricity.

Reducing inequities within countries can be achieved either by impoverishing the rich, or improving the lot of the poor. Most people would agree that the latter option is preferable, and this is the approach that Asian developing countries are pursuing.

Such policies require more development and ­energy use in the rural areas, and thus higher emissions of greenhouse gases for many years.

Despite the relative affluence of Shanghai, New Delhi and Jakarta, there is still quite a way to go before the growing affluence of the middle classes extends to the poorer sectors of society in most of the Asian countries.

Equity between generations

The earth has been getting warmer during recent decades primarily because human beings put ­greenhouse gases into the atmosphere faster than the ocean and the forests can absorb them.

The levels of carbon dioxide, for example, are about 30 percent higher today than they were in ­pre-industrial times. Most of this increase has come from the emissions from Europe, the United States and, to a smaller extent, Japan. These countries developed their economies and reached a good level of affluence before the ­implications for the global environment in general, and climate change in particular, became known.

Past generations of Europeans and Americans did not set out to damage the global environment, but the results of their actions impact all countries of the world. Future generations — particularly in the ­developing world — are being asked to sacrifice to make up for the profligacy of our ancestors. Ironically, the small islands of Asia and the Pacific, which have made essentially no contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, are likely to be the first ones to be hit hard by global climate change.

Reaching equity between generations has been a difficult issue in many fields, be it the national debt of the United States, the depletion of mineral and other natural resources, or the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

A major problem here is that future generations do not vote in current elections. It is a rare politician in any country who will sacrifice his or her re-election for the sake of future generations.

The changing role of Asia’s developing countries

The atmosphere does not care whether the ­greenhouse gases entering it come from the industrialized countries or the developing ones, nor that the changes to the global climate will affect all countries, rich and poor.

A rise in sea level would result not only in the ­gradual submergence of the small island states such as the Maldives, but also create major problems for many of Asia’s largest coastal cities, such as Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila and Shanghai. Tens of millions of people in Asia may have to be resettled, and massive expenditures incurred to protect the coastal cities from sea level rise, which under various scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, may range from about 20 centimeters to about 70 ­centimeters (about 8 inches to 2 feet) by the end of this century.

Further, the expected greater intensity (but not necessarily the frequency) of hurricanes could have a larger impact than before on countries in Asia that are frequently affected by hurricanes (cyclones), such as Bangladesh, China, India, the Philippines and Japan. Also, parts of many countries in Asia, including Northwestern India and almost all of Pakistan, are already suffering from shortages of water.

A rise in global temperature would, for example, accelerate the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas that feed the rivers in Northern India and throughout Pakistan, leading subsequently to even greater water shortages.