Toufiq A. Siddiqi » The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Climate Change

Asia’s current contribution to greenhouse gas emissions

During the past two decades, greenhouse gas emissions from Asian countries, particularly carbon dioxide, have been increasing rapidly, due mainly to industrialization and population growth. Four of the ten countries in the world with the highest CO2 emissions from ­fossil-fuel use today are located in Asia. China ranks second today, but may overtake the United States as the largest emitter by next year. India (fourth), Japan (fifth), and South Korea (seventh) also rank among the top eight emitters.

These rankings do not include the carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of ­firewood and other ­biomass that are large sources of energy in many Asian countries. Further, ongoing changes in land use, ­particularly as forests give way to agriculture and urban development, also represent ­significant contributors to carbon dioxide emissions in many of the larger Asian countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

On average, each American emits more than four times as much carbon dioxide from energy use as a Chinese, and as much as 20 Indians. This difference in per-capita CO2 emissions has important implications for reaching a binding international agreement on global climate change.

Issues of equity in addressing global climate change

Each country takes an approach to limiting ­greenhouse gases that is beneficial to its own ­immediate interests.

At climate change meetings, the U.S. delegate might say to his Chinese counterpart: “By next year, your emissions of carbon dioxide will be greater than ours. If we put a cap on greenhouse gases in our ­country, even more of our manufacturing industries will move to your country or to other developing countries. This will mean more jobs lost within the United States and more hardship for our people. Further, if the industry is simply relocated to a ­developing country, the global emissions stay the same. Our economic loss will be your economic gain.

“Thus we won’t put any limitations on greenhouse gas ­emissions unless you do the same,” he concludes.

The delegate from China might reply: “Oh, come on. Each American emits about four times as much ­carbon dioxide as a Chinese. We want to offer a good life to our citizens, too, and close the gap in the living standards of the people in our respective countries, and we have to use the energy resources that we have, mostly coal. Further, most of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere today were emitted by the industrialized nations, with the largest contribution coming from the USA.

“It’s your responsibility to reduce emissions first, before asking us to do the same,” he responds.

There are thus important equity issues to be resolved, if all countries of the world are to reach an agreement to limit future emissions of greenhouse gases. The three types of equity issues that are implied in the fictitious discussion between an American and a Chinese are:

Equity between countries

Countries come in different shapes and sizes, and have vastly different populations. One indicator that is ­frequently used in comparing countries is the average income of people in countries, i.e. the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or gross national income (GNI). It is an internationally accepted goal to bridge the gap between the incomes in the industrialized and the developing countries.

There is a fairly good correlation between the average Gross Domestic Product of a country and its per capita energy use and the resulting impact on the environment. The developing countries around the world, including China and India, point to the per capita GDP of their countries, and the need to catch up with the industrialized countries such as the United States, Japan and Germany.

They maintain that this cannot be achieved ­without increased use of energy and other resources. Thus, they say, their emissions of greenhouse gases will have to increase for many years.