The Arroyo Imbroglio in the Philippines

While demonstrating its authoritarian inclinations, the Arroyo government simultaneously stepped up the campaign to revamp the country’s democratic structures. As in 2005, this was motivated in part by a need to encourage Speaker de Venecia’s active support in quashing a second impeachment attempt. This goal was accomplished in August 2006, just as the Palace was mobilizing tens of thousands of local politicians in the provinces to support charter change via a nationwide “people’s initiative.” Millions of signatures from throughout the country were solicited in favor of a shift from a bicameral presidential system to a unicameral parliamentary system, but the Supreme Court ruled in October that the campaign fell short of constitutional requirements.

In a desperate year-end move, de Venecia and his allies in the House tried to push for revision of the constitution—creating a unicameral parliament—through the alternative mode of constituent assembly. The already scheduled May 2007 congressional polls would be canceled in favor of November 2007 elections for an interim parliamentary body that would serve until 2010. Macapagal-Arroyo would serve out her term as president until 2010, at which point both she and de Venecia would be eligible to run for parliament and seek the post of prime minister. 14

The plan was a spectacular failure. Senators, not surprisingly, were opposed to reforms designed to abolish their chamber, and they were joined by the Catholic bishops, anti-Arroyo forces, and those who favored constitutional change but wanted it to come through the more deliberative mode of a popularly elected constitutional convention.

Election Intrigue

As soon as the plan was defeated, the country’s political elites refocused their attention on the May 2007 midterm elections. It has already been noted that in the Senate—where half the 24 seats are elected every three years from a single, national district—Macapagal-Arroyo’s forces were soundly defeated. The most stunning rebuke to Macapagal-Arroyo was the election of opposition senator Antonio Trillanes IV, accused of being a mastermind of the failed anti-Arroyo mutiny of July 2003. The 35-year-old former navy officer won eleven million votes (for an eleventh-place finish) despite campaigning from his prison cell. In the House, as was to be expected, the president’s control over patronage resources ensured that the administration coalition would be successful in gaining an overwhelming majority of the 220 single-member, district level seats.

In 2007 as in 2004, the elections revealed major shortcomings in the country’s democratic structures. The Philippine ballot is probably one of the most archaic in the world, as voters are required to fill in, by hand, the names of all candidates for whom they are voting. The vote tally is then compiled, also by hand. With thirty million ballots cast last May, each containing the votes for roughly 25 to 30 positions, election officials faced the gargantuan task of counting almost a billion preferences in all. This laborious process is highly susceptible to fraud: As official election tallies begin their long migration from local precincts throughout the Philippine archipelago to Manila over the course of several weeks, politicians can use a variety of tactics to supplement retail vote purchases with wholesale manipulation of the vote count.

In each of the last two elections, the Commission on Elections has demonstrated itself to be fabulously incompetent (and often very corrupt) in performing its three basic tasks of preparing for elections, executing the polling process, and counting the votes. NAMFREL reported that in 2004, due to huge errors in COMELEC’s voter lists, “disenfranchisement may have run as high as two million voters.” 15

There has long been talk of modernizing the ballot, but allegations of corruption have impeded change. Most recently, in 2003, a COMELEC attempt to automate the electoral system was nullified by the Supreme Court due to bidding violations. Finally, the long vote count provides ample opportunities for election officials to solicit payoffs not only from trailing candidates wanting to pad their votes, but also from leading candidates needing to protect their votes against the cheating of others.

After the May 2007 elections, it took almost two months before the twelfth-ranked candidate was proclaimed a victor in the Senate contest. Many of the charges and counter-charges focused on Mindanao’s remote province of Maguindanao, the details of which illustrate complex interactions between the administration, COMELEC, and local powerholders. In the run-up to the elections, each region of the country was put under the supervision of a particular COMELEC commissioner. Benjamin Abalos, a political ally of the First Gentleman who had been appointed COMELEC chair in 2002, assumed initial responsibility for the polls in Mindanao and then placed key lieutenants in strategic posts. In Maguindanao, his provincial election supervisor was a well known protégé of Garcillano who had merited frequent mention in the “Hello, Garci” tapes and was linked to suspiciously strong pro-Arroyo results in the 2004 election. Without the effective oversight of either COMELEC or election monitors (who were barred from many localities), Macapagal-Arroyo’s political allies in Maguindanao were able to deliver a sweep to her Team Unity senatorial candidates.

The key figure in securing this outcome was Governor Andal Ampatuan, who commands a substantial paramilitary force and has a reputation for using violence against his political enemies. “Whatever the president wants, he will follow,” said a family friend to Newsbreak. “12-0 is what Ma’am wants.” Ampatuan is no doubt well-rewarded by the Palace, but seemingly cuts deals for his own benefit as well. Among the Team Unity hopefuls, it is reported that “the ranking of individual candidates depended on how much they would pay up.” Rumor has it that the top senatorial slot in Maguindanao went to a northern Luzon strongman for the sum of 30 million pesos (US$636,000). 16