The Arroyo Imbroglio in the Philippines

Politicians have little allegiance to party labels, frequently bolting from one party to another in search of the greatest access to patronage resources. Political divides are ever-shifting, uniting former rivals and dividing former allies in a continual process of alignment and realignment almost entirely divorced from coherent positions on policies or programs. At times, it seems as common for candidates to put up parties as it is for parties to put up candidates. Political scientist Nathan Quimpo provides perhaps the best description of contemporary Philippine political parties: “convenient vehicles of patronage that can be set up, merged with others, split, reconstituted, regurgitated, resurrected, renamed, repackaged, recycled, refurbished, buffed up or flushed down the toilet anytime.” 4

In an environment in which political institutions are weak, differences in leadership styles have a particularly large impact on political outcomes. The four post-Marcos presidents vary enormously in the quality and goals of their leadership. Corazon Aquino (r. 1986–92), widow of a martyred politician, might be characterized as an elite restorationist, since her major achievement was to rebuild the elite-dominated democratic structures undermined by her authoritarian predecessor. Former general Fidel Ramos (r. 1992–98) was the military reformer who achieved considerable success in bringing about economic reform through deft manipulation of old-style patronage politics. Joseph Estrada (r. 1998–2001), a former movie star, was the populist self-aggrandizer who built a strong following among the masses and then redistributed wealth in favor of his family and friends; anger over his corruption led to his downfall via “People Power II” in January 2001. Finally, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (r. 2001–present), a former president’s daughter and the holder of a doctorate in economics, might be called the great compromiser, given her willingness to accommodate anyone able to help her retain the presidency.

An Election Scandal and Its Aftermath

On the surface, the 14 May 2007 midterm elections seemed to demonstrate the vitality of Philippine democracy. Some 87,000 candidates contested more than 16,000 local and national posts. Two-thirds of registered voters exercised their right to vote. Hundreds of thousands of citizens mobilized to guard the polls in four-fifths or more of the nation’s precincts, and to monitor the vote count afterward. (5) In the senatorial elections, widely viewed as a popular referendum on the Arroyo administration, candidates running under an ad hoc label of “Genuine Opposition” ended up winning a majority of the 12 seats at stake, despite large sums expended by those who campaigned under the president’s rival banner of “Team Unity.”

A closer look, however, reveals that the Philippine electoral process is alive but not well. The most recent elections went forward un-der the shadow of the 2004 presidential election, after which President Macapagal-Arroyo was accused of personal involvement in an attempt to fix the results. Because she came into office in 2001 via people power, Macapagal-Arroyo’s first three years in the Palace were dogged by questions of legitimacy—even though the Supreme Court had given its imprimatur to her ascension. The president was determined to correct this at the ballot box, and in the 2004 elections her considerable patronage resources were skillfully deployed to local politicians throughout the archipelago. There were many allegations of improper use of public funds, manipulation of government programs, and tampering with the vote count, but election-monitoring groups were generally happy to declare the results “free and fair.” Many feared the consequences of victory by Macapagal-Arroyo’s major opponent, Fernando Poe, Jr., a popular movie star with close ties to deposed president Estrada. The National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL), in particular, seems to have been more concerned with giving Macapagal-Arroyo legitimacy than with safeguarding the sanctity of the ballot. 6

With the help of “free election” monitors, Macapagal-Arroyo managed to weather criticism and enjoy the legitimation of her million-vote margin over Poe. By mid-2005, however, things had started to unravel. In May came accusations that her husband and son were taking monthly payments from gambling lords. This had particular resonance because her predecessor, Joseph Estrada, had been drummed out of office partly due to accusations of heading up a lucrative gambling syndicate. Most damaging, however, was the bombshell that hit the headlines in June 2005. Tapes of wiretapped conversations were released, thought to contain the voice of the president talking to a Commission on Elections (COMELEC) commissioner amid the counting of ballots in the weeks after the May 2004 election. In one oft-quoted segment said to be from late May, a female voice expresses concern for the electoral margin (“So I will still lead by more than one M., overall?”) while a male voice promises to work things out. 7

These accusations produced a firestorm of anger against the Palace and led to a nationally telecast apology from the president on June 27. She admitted to improper conversations with the commissioner, unsavory COMELEC veteran Virgilio “Garci” Garcillano, but denied that it was her voice on the leaked tapes. In retrospect, it seems that MacapagalArroyo had brought upon herself a string of presidential bad luck perhaps unrivaled since Richard Nixon decided to record his conversations in the Oval Office. First, Garcillano had been named a commissioner in February 2004, seemingly to do whatever might be necessary to guarantee a decisive Arroyo victory in May. The Palace then brought the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP) under its wing to monitor election-related conversations, including those of Garcillano (likely out of concern that he might cut deals for himself that could be disadvantageous to the administration). ISAFP proceeded to tape these conversations, and the president seemingly had the misfortune of having her own conversations with Garcillano leaked to opposition figures by disgruntled military-intelligence officers. 8