Assessing change in Asia

HONOLULU — Security, economics, the U.S. role in the Asia Pacific, Beijing-Washington relations, and the hard to define, but “know it when you see it,” concept of “soft power” were the major topics of discussion at the just concluded at the East-West Center’s eighth Senior Policy Seminar. The gathering of twenty-eight serving or retired officials, academics, sector experts, and business leaders from around the Asia Pacific region held frank and open discussions on the myriad of topics that will affect the region in both the short and long-term.

At a public luncheon held at the conclusion of the seminar, four of the participants addressed some of the topics discussed.

Han Sung-Joo, former South Korean foreign minister and currently president of Korea University in Seoul, weighed in on the North Korea nuclear problem and security in Northeast Asia. Han noted that “despite the apparent progress on the North Korea nuclear issue” one element has been overlooked. He notes that the latest agreements in essence allow North Korea to be a defacto nuclear nation, much as Pakistan and India.

This means, according to Han, “We will have to live with a nuclear North Korea … South Korea and Japan will have to become more dependent on the United States’ nuclear umbrella whether those governments want to admit it or not.”

But, Han sees the biggest change coming about in the rest of the world’s perception of North Korea. He says the progress made in the 6-Party Talks has given North Korea much of what Pyongyang has been seeking. “North Korea has wanted economic assistance and the establishment of diplomatic relations with the U.S. and others in the Western world,” and it is well on the way to receiving both. Han added the biggest change in the equation was change in U.S. policy. “What the recent agreements mean,” Han said is that “North Korea now appears to be for peace,” no matter what the reality may be.

North Korea and its nuclear program cast a big shadow across Northeast Asia, but China’s footprint spans the continent. Ambassador Wu Jianmin, former member of the Chinese delegation to the United Nations and various high-ranking diplomatic postings in Europe, cast China as a gentle dragon. Amb.Wu, who is currently president of the China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, said “China is still a developing country ” and went on to laud the good relations between Washington and Beijing. He noted the most important point is that “over the past 36 years the two countries (China and the U.S.) have focused on common interests rather than differences.” Alluding to current rumblings over trade, Amb.Wu said he was not too worried, noting “we have shared economic interests … the U.S. has what China needs and China has what the U.S. needs.”

Picking up on the economic theme, Dr. Lawrence Lau, president and professor of economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said a sharp revaluation of the renminbi (China’s currency) would “not reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China.” He went on to note that the value-added content of Chinese products “is not so big” and that even a prompt “10 percent revaluation of the renminbi would in reality only mean about a 2 percent add-on in China.” That would not add enough to the cost of Chinese exports to the U.S. to make a dent in the trade deficit. The main culprit leading to the U.S. trade deficit, according to Lau, is “too much consumption and too little savings” in the U.S. Lau added that “the trade deficit is actually to the U.S.’ advantage at this time,” but he did concede in the long-term it was not.

Ambassador Stephen Bosworth, former U.S. envoy to South Korea and the Philippines and currently dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, summed up the conference and its importance when he ventured that “Today we are in the middle of a phenomena bigger and more important than the Industrial Revolution.” He noted that “millions and millions of people (in the region) are rising in only one generation from poverty to middle class (status),” something unheard of in such scope in such a short amount of time.

Bosworth noted that “greater economic integration, driven by the private sector, has led to trading and investing across borders,” something people are doing as well in an unprecedented manner. He pointed out that this private-sector led change is causing “governments to try to catch up … and to see the virtue in coming and growing together.”

He admitted that the U.S. government is distracted and not paying as much attention as it should to Asia. But, the former ambassador pointed out “the (U.S.) private sector remains very much engaged (in the region), as well as the U.S. military profile.” Bosworth remained optimistic. He summed up by noting, “The U.S. cares as much about Asia as before, but (the U.S. government) is too busy to show it.”

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