ARMM plebiscite: Is Misuari finished?

By Carlos H. Conde

DAVAO CITY–Somewhere in Jolo, Nur Misuari is reportedly sulking. For good reason.

Last week, Malacanang stripped him of the chairmanship of the Southern Philippines Council for Peace and Development, the de facto governing body over the 14 cities and 15 provinces that comprise the Special Zone of Peace and Development (Szopad), itself a de facto political unit.

Immediately after his firing (”unceremoniously,” say Misuari’s people in the Moro National Liberation Front), there was talk that Misuari would give up his last political card � the governorship of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

But one top-level MNLF official, ARMM executive secretary Abdurahman Amin, reportedly snarled at reporters early this week: “No, the Chairman won’t resign. They can fire him as governor of ARMM if that’s what they want, but he won’t resign!”

“They,” of course, is Malacanang, which, according to sources in the Palace, had planned to fire Misuari as SPCPD chairman as early as August 2, the day he was called to Malacanang for a closed-door meeting with Executive Secretary Alberto Romulo.

No one was fired that day, as it turned out, because the plan “had to be phased,” according to a Cabinet official. But it was imperative, the source pointed out, that Misuari be taken out of the SPCPD before the plebiscite took place yesterday, August 14.

Out of the SPCPD, Misuari is left with the ARMM, the expansion of which to 15 provinces and 14 cities (according to the provisions of the Tripoli Agreement and the 1996 Final Peace Agreement) seemed doomed by the reportedly overwhelming anti-Misuari sentiment in the non-Moro areas, as well as the very low turnout in yesterday’s referendum.

By being a mere governor of four poor provinces of a region that has been wracked by seemingly never-ending conflict, Misuari has effectively been emasculated. At least, with the SPCPD, he could claim political clout that no governor will probably ever have.

As Farouk Hussein, Arroyo’s adviser on Muslim Mindanao and one of those who staged a coup against Misuari, told this writer last week: “Misuari’s wings are clipped. He no longer has credibility. He can only have authority if he remains the SPCPD chairman.”

But even that is gone now. And Misuari is back in his hometown, licking his wounds, perhaps plotting his next moves and pondering his political future.

To Misuari’s critics say that if Misuari is smart, he should be able to read the handwriting on the wall. They say that the great Nur Misuari–the hope of this country’s Moro population who imbued in the Moro people a revolutionary fervor unparalleled in modern times, who successfully internationalized the struggle of the Bangsa Moro people–is finished.

Lawyer Soliman Santos Jr., a noted scholar on Muslim Mindanao, told CyberDyaryo the Arroyo administration “might try to console (Misuari) with some other position or appointment which will keep him away from trouble.”

Indeed, Malacanang was thinking along those lines. Late last week, Presidential Spokesman Rigoberto Tiglao told Malacanang reporters that the administration was considering appointing Misuari to a government post, perhaps as an ambassador or even as a presidential adviser.

“The President would like to thank ARMM Gov. Nur Misuari for his magnanimity and for his invaluable contribution to the historic peace settlement between the government and the MNLF, including the many years he served the SPCPD as chairman,” Tiglao said. “She hopes he will continue to help the government’s efforts to uplift the lives of our Muslim brothers in another appointive position.”

But Santos said, “I don’t know if they (Malacanang) can still save his face.”

So what’s a man in crisis like Misuari to do? ”

A number of things,” said Santos. He could “see the writing on the wall, rise above himself, if he can, and rebound as a senior Moro statesman. Write his memoirs–he once said he wanted to go back to teaching.”

Mohagher Iqbal, information officer of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), told CyberDyaryo that Misuari can still rectify some of the “mistakes” he made as ARMM governor and SPCPD chairman “and maybe bounce back.” But, Iqbal added, “I don’t think he can come out victorious.”

If it is any consolation, the MILF’s door is always open to Misuari, he said. But that is probably out of the question for the proud Misuari. Although Misuari initiated a reunification talk with MILF chairman Salamat Hashim in 1997 (in Camp Abubakar, where they partook of a meal of tilapia), it is unlikely that he would swallow everything.

At any rate, Iqbal sees three possible futures for Misuari.

First, “he can be a puppet of the Arroyo administration.” This, he said, will happen if Misauri accepts a government post that would run counter to the aspirations of the Moro people for self-determination.

Second, “Misuari could return to the correct revolutionary line to fight government through a protracted armed struggle.”

Third, “he could adopt a bahala-na attidude.”

Iqbal said Misuari would be hard put to decide which path to take. “Fighting government is not a very easy decision. Being a civilian is also difficult for somebody like him. Joining the government would also be difficult, although I think the government will just drop him like a hot potato. I think he still has some principles left.”

Santos, for his part, said Misuari’s veiled threats to resume fighting “are all rhetoric”. Santos added, “He has a diminished mass base with the breakaway of the Executive Council. Both MNLF factions are no longer feared for war. Many have been integrated militarily as well as politically.”

For his part, Iqbal said, “The best option for Misuari would be to run for ARMM governor although I don’t think he would win. At the Organization of Islamic Conference, he would have a difficult time regaining his credibility.”

“The days of Nur Misuari are numbered,” Iqbal said. “It’s just a matter of time.”

Santos is convinced that everything that has happened in the past weeks — to Misuari, the MNLF, the MILF and the peace process — is for the good of the Moro people. “Moro unity is necessary as against divide and rule. Nur is better sidelined since he has outlived his positive role and, in fact, has been more in a negative role (poor performance, which affects the Moro people’s name and struggle) since 1996.”

With the people’s faith in Misuari lost, his critics seem to be saying that the best revolutionary mind the Moro people has produced in a long while has a lot of thinking and soul-searching to do in faraway Jolo.

(This story first appeared in CyberDyaryo)